Real Property Report – California, August 2015
California Sales Stuck in Doldrums,
Down 13.1 Percent from July
Median Price Falls 1.2 Percent to $415,000
CALIFORNIA, SEPTEMBER 22, 2015 – [tweet_dis url=”http://bit.ly/1VaQJPj”]California single-family home and condominium sales fell 13.1 percent to 36,733 in August[/tweet_dis] from 42,261 in July but were up 3.1 percent from 35,613 in August 2014. Driving the increase in year-over-year sales was the 6.4 percent increase in non-distressed property sales.
“While we had a couple of strong months this year, [tweet_dis url=”http://bit.ly/1VaQJPj”]August sales are a clear reminder that CA sales are still quite weak[/tweet_dis],” said Madeline Schnapp, Director of Economic Research for PropertyRadar. “Year-to-date sales volumes are lower than 4 of the last 6 years, only slightly better than 2007, and far below pre-crisis volumes.”
The median price of a California home in August was $415,000, down 1.2 percent from a revised $420,000 in July.
“[tweet_dis url=”http://bit.ly/1VaQJPj”]The lack of price appreciation in August was welcome news for buyers[/tweet_dis],” said Schnapp. “Median prices peaked at $420,000 in July, its highest level since November 2007. Without higher sales volumes it is unlikely prices will push higher particularly since we are heading into the fall and winter selling season.”
On a year-over-year basis, the median price of a California home was up 4.5 percent from $397,000 dollars in August 2014 down from the double digit annual price appreciation that characterized the market in 2013 through mid-2014. Despite the slowdown in price appreciation, at the county level, [tweet_dis url=”http://bit.ly/1VaQJPj”]year-over-year median price increases exceeded 10 percent in six of California’s 26 largest counties[/tweet_dis] and two of those experienced double-digit price increases in excess of 20 percent. The counties with the largest annual price increases were San Bernardino (+11.2 percent), San Francisco (+28.3 percent), San Mateo (+21.3 percent), Santa Clara (+11.8 percent) and Solano (+11.7 percent).
Cash sales fell 8.1 percent in August to 7,730 and represented 21.0 percent of total sales up 1.1 percent from 19.9 percent of total sales in July. Cash sales as a percentage of total sales remain elevated but have been steadily declining since reaching a peak of 40.0 percent of total sales in August 2011. On a regional basis, of the 26 largest California counties, cash sales as a percentage of total sales were highest in Merced (26.7 percent), Santa Barbara (25.5 percent), San Francisco (25.1 percent), and Monterey (25.1 percent) counties.
“Cash sales increased as a percent of total sales in August,” said Schnapp. “We are looking forward to see what impact the stock market volatility in the past two months will have on housing, but given escrow timing, we don’t believe it had any impact in August.”
In other California housing news:
- [tweet_dis url=”http://bit.ly/1VaQJPj”]Flip sales fell 6.5 percent during the month of August but are up 1.0 percent over the past 12 months. [/tweet_dis]Despite the decline in August, since reaching a seasonal low in January 2015, flip sales have increased 55.2 percent.
- The number of homeowners in a negative equity position continued downward in August. [tweet_dis url=”http://bit.ly/1VaQJPj”]Approximately 6.7 percent of homeowners, or nearly 600,000, owed more than their home was worth[/tweet_dis], down 0.4 percent for the month and 42.3 percent from August 2014. To put the current negative equity level in perspective, in January 2015 there were just under one million California homeowners underwater, or one in nine. Today, one in 15 California homeowners are underwater.
- Institutional Investor (LLC and LP entities) purchases fell 5.2 percent to 1,295 during the month of August and are down 4.0 percent from August 2014. Since reaching a peak in December 2012, institutional investor demand has declined 44.0 percent. [tweet_dis url=”http://bit.ly/1VaQJPj”]Trustee Sale purchases by LLC and LPs were down 83.5 percent from their October 2012 peak[/tweet_dis] but have trended mostly sideways since May 2014. Institutional Investor sales 8.9 percent for the month and is down 17.7 percent from August 2014. Investor sales have been on a downward trend since March 2015.
- Foreclosure Notices of Default fell 8.7 percent in August from July while Notices of Trustee Sale and Foreclosure Sales increased 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Despite the increases, [tweet_dis url=”http://bit.ly/1VaQJPj”]foreclosure notices and sales are near their lowest levels in our records dating back to 2007[/tweet_dis]. Foreclosure inventories fell 1.1 percent for the month and are down 9.2 percent from August 2014.
Home Sales – Single-family residence and condominium sales by month from 2007 to current divided into distressed and non-distressed sales. Distressed sales are the sum of short sales, where the home is sold for less than the amount owed, and REO sales, where banks resell homes that they took ownership of after foreclosure. All other sales are considered non-distressed.
Year-over-Year Home Sales
Year-over-Year Home Sales Year-over-Year Home Sales – Single-family residences and condominiums sold during the same month for the current year and prior years divided into distressed and non-distressed sales.
Median Sales Prices vs. Sales Volume
Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume – Median sales price (left axis) of a California single family home versus sales volume (right axis), by month from 2012 to current. Median sales prices are divided into three categories: All single-family homes (black line), distressed properties (red line), and non-distressed properties (blue line). Monthly sales volumes (right axis) are illustrated as gray and lavender bars. The gray bars are distressed sales and the lavender bars are non-distressed sales.
California Homeowner Equity
California Home Owner Equity – A model estimate of California homeowners segregated into various categories of levels of homeowner equity for a given month. Homeowner numbers represent a percentage of total California homeowners.
Cash Sales – The blue bars (right axis) illustrate cash sales of single-family residences and condominiums by month. The red line (left axis) illustrates cash sales as a percentage of total sales by month.
Flipping – The number of single-family residences and condominiums resold within six months.
Market Purchases by LLCs and LPs
Market Purchases by LLCs and LPs – The blue bars (right axis) illustrate market purchases of single-family residences and condominiums by LLCs and LPs from 2007 to current. The red line graph (left axis) illustrates LLC and LP purchases as a percentage of total sales by month.
Market Sales by LLCs and LPs
Market Sales by LLCs and LPs – The blue bars (right axis) illustrate market sales by LLCs and LPs of single-family residences and condominiums by month. The red line graph (left axis) illustrates sales as a percentage of total sales by month.
Trustee Sale Purchases by LLCs and LPs
Trustee Sale Purchases by LLCs and LPs – The blue bars (right axis) illustrate trustee sale purchases (foreclosure sales) of single-family residences and condominiums by LLCs and LPs from 2007 to current. The red line graph (left axis) illustrates purchases as a percentage of total trustee sales by month.
Foreclosure Notices and Sales
Foreclosure Notices and Sales – Properties that have received foreclosure notices — Notice of Default (green) or Notice of Trustee Sale (blue) — or have been sold at a foreclosure auction (red) by month.
Foreclosure Inventory – Preforeclosure inventory estimates the number of properties that have had a Notice of Default filed against them but have not been Scheduled for Sale, by month. Scheduled for Sale inventory represents properties that have had a Notice of Trustee Sale filed but have not yet been sold or had the sale cancelled, by month. Bank-Owned (REO) inventory means properties sold Back to the Bank at the trustee sale and the bank has not resold to another party, by month.
Real Property Report Methodology
California real estate data presented by PropertyRadar, including analysis, charts and graphs, is based upon public county records and daily trustee sale (foreclosure auction) results. Items are reported as of the date the event occurred or was recorded with the California County. If a county has not reported complete data by the publication date, we may estimate the missing data, though only if the missing data is believed to be 10 percent or less.